Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili
World powers are expected to offer Iran limited sanctions relief on
Tuesday if it agrees to halt its most sensitive nuclear work, in a new
attempt to resolve a dispute that threatens to trigger another war in
the Middle East.
In their first meeting in eight months - time that Iran has used to
expand atomic activity that the West suspects is aimed at developing a
bomb capability - the powers hope Iran will engage in serious talks on
finding a diplomatic solution.
The negotiations formally got under way in the Kazakh city of Almaty -
which follows three inconclusive meetings last year in Istanbul, Baghdad
and Moscow - at around 1:30 p.m (07:30 a.m. British time), reports
Reuters.
But with the Islamic Republic's political elite pre-occupied with
worsening internal infighting ahead of a June presidential election, few
believe the meeting Tuesday and Wednesday in the Kazakh city of Almaty
will yield an immediate breakthrough.
At best, diplomats and analysts say, Iran will take the joint offer
from the United States, Russia, France, Germany, Britain and China
seriously and agree to hold further talks soon on how to implement
practical steps to ease the tension.
The powers would like to see "a recognition by our Iranian colleagues
that our offer is a serious one ... but it is not the final act in the
play," said one diplomat participating in the talks. "I wouldn't predict
a decisive breakthrough."
Iran is showing no sign, however, of backing down over a nuclear
programme it says is for entirely peaceful energy purposes. The
programme has drawn tough Western sanctions that have greatly reduced
its oil exports, an economic lifeline.
A U.N. nuclear watchdog report last week said Iran was for the first
time installing advanced centrifuges that would allow it to
significantly speed up its enrichment of uranium, which can have both
civilian and military purposes.
Tightening Western sanctions on Iran over the last 14 months are
hurting Iran's economy, slashing oil revenue and driving the currency
down, which in turn has pushed up inflation.
But they are not close to having the crippling effect envisaged by
Washington, analysts say, and - so far at least - have not prompted a
change in nuclear course by Tehran.
Western officials say the powers' offer - an updated version of one
rejected by Iran in the last meeting in June - would include an easing
of sanctions of trade in gold and other precious metals if Tehran closes
its underground Fordow enrichment plant.
The stakes are high. Israel, assumed to be the only nuclear-armed power
in the Middle East, has hinted strongly at possible military action to
prevent its foe from obtaining such arms. Iran has threatened to
retaliate hard if attacked.
The fact that the meeting takes place in Kazakhstan - which gave up its
nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early
1990s - has symbolic resonance.
A U.S. official said the Central Asian state could serve as a "good
role model" for the benefits of making "certain choices", in clear
reference to Iran's atomic ambitions.
Western officials acknowledge an easing of U.S. and European sanctions
on trade in gold represents a relatively modest step. But it could be
used as part of barter transactions that might allow Iran to circumvent
tight financial sanctions.
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